Tag: gas price prediction

Weak economy and Europe issues mean no record gas prices this year

Back in January, I made a prediction that gas prices would easily top records this summer.

Was I right?

Not exactly, no. This year was an odd one for gas prices. Usually gas follows a pretty standard path, as it rises early in the year to reach summer highs, then falls for the rest of the year.

Things were different this time. Gas prices spiked early, and then actually fell as we got closer to memorial day.

The reason, is the the US economic growth disappointed, and worries in Europe kept oil prices low. Indeed, oil is under $85 today. Combined with a lack of “fear disasters” to spike up prices, oil valuations are actually being rational. Click to read more!

Downtown Fresno Open House

There’s an interesting, unique event happening downtown this weekend, a downtown-wide open house.

How does it work? Well, it’s really something that could only work in Fresno. Basically, 5 new residential developments downtown (aka, the majority) will open their doors for viewings. That’s not something that could ever happen in Miami, Boston or LA, but because Fresno has so little housing downtown, something like this can be coordinated.

I’m excited. The open house includes a mixture of places, such as brand new development (Fulton Village), industrial/commercial that has been rehabbed into lofts, and even one of the cities tallest buildings, being converted into residential. That last project, has been ongoing for years, and it’s exciting to finally see something come of it. Click to read more!

Gas prices will probably break records again this summer

It appears to me that this summer we will see the highest gas prices of all time…again. Predicting exact price is always impossible, because of so many variables, but while oil and gas can be quite unpredictable, they also follow very clear seasonal patterns. What that means is that from now until memorial day, expect gas prices to increase….as they always do. What makes this year special is that our starting point is the highest it’s ever been.

The ingredients that will lead us to new records this summer:

-Economy is improving by all metrics, and looks to continue that way. More demand = higher prices.
-Ethanol subsidy is gone, leading a 4.5 cent increase per gallon of gas (should be in effect now)
-We are currently at the highest January prices ever, and…
-Last year had very few events which caused spikes in prices (hurricanes, strikes etc). That means that any spike this year caused by a one-off event will send prices way higher than last year, and even without any spikes, prices should still follow last years trajectory. While last year did see the events in Libya rattle investors, it caused a general rise and not a spike (as would happen if a refinery blew up, or a hurricane hit Texas). As the arab spring is still in effect (see Syria), prices will not drop. Click to read more!

Was my gas price prediction right?

On April 11th, I made an easy 1-month prediction for where gas prices would be. I said:

Today, April 11, 2011
National: 3.78
Fresno: 4.09

May 4:
National: 4.04
Fresno: 4.45

May 15:
National: 3.99
Fresno: 4.39

How correct was I?

According to Gasbuddy.com
May 4 was
National: 3.955
Fresno: 4.22

So my national guess was pretty damn close (5 cents off), but my “california premium” was too high.

For May 15, I forecast that gas prices would go DOWN. Controversial, considering memorial day approaches. I predicted a massive 17 cent drop in Fresno and only a 5 cent drop nationally.

How close was I? Click to read more!